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预测全球下一次呼吸道病毒传染病

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发表于 2021-2-14 15:18:40 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 邓文龙 于 2021-2-14 16:01 编辑

预测全球下一次呼吸道病毒传染病

HANTAO GU  2021.2.4

我预测、人类下一次呼吸道病毒传染病的大流行或小流行、大约在2025年(或2026年)12月22日的前后(大概是中国农历节气的冬至前后)。这个时间、由于太阳系行星位置、地球公转自转等原因、北半球日照时间最短、太阳光线最斜、北半球气温和动物身体近表面温度下降、尤其人类等灵长目动物的鼻腔、咽喉部等上部呼吸道温度会低于摄氏34度、甚至有时为33度以下、或更低、局部免疫力低下。又2020后几年过去了、人类不少人已忘记了新冠病毒肺炎危险性、行为上放松警惕而防疫、防御不足、人身体内部的特异和非特异免疫力已有下降、而寄生在野生哺乳纲动物身体中的病毒已积累了不少侵犯人类的病毒突变、等等、多个因素。导致人类发生像SARS、MERS、本次的新冠病毒肺炎那样的一个地区的小流行、或世界性大流行。如果2025年(或2026年)的年末只是发生一次不太引起医学界、公众重视和注意的小流行、那么再下次大、小流行将发生在2030年(或2031年)的冬季。全世界要设法加强野生动物关联的管理、疫苗研究、预防全球性呼吸道传染性疾病的发生、避免人群死亡和经济损失。
( 推荐三篇与 防止下次全世界大流行、野生动物和疫苗关联论文供参考。也许您们已经读过了、那对不起了:
1. Science:Ecology and economics for pandemic prevention  https://science.sciencemag.org/c ... ZOam9XNBarfqLSuyGsk
2. Science:Rigorous wildlife disease surveillance  https://science.sciencemag.org/c ... KZYiahdba6v8yXz7mNA
3. Nature:Variant-proof vaccines — invest now for the next pandemic  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00340-4



(Google English translation : )

Predicting the next respiratory virus infection in the world

HANTAO GU 2021.2.4

I predict that the next pandemic or minor epidemic of human respiratory viral infectious diseases will be around December 22 in 2025 (or 2026) (probably around the winter solstice of the Chinese lunar solar terms). At this time, due to the position of the planets in the solar system, the rotation of the earth, etc., the northern hemisphere has the shortest sunshine time, the sun's rays are the most oblique, the northern hemisphere temperature and the near surface temperature of the animal body drop, especially the upper respiratory tract temperature of humans and other primates, such as the nasal cavity and throat. At 34 degrees Celsius, and sometimes even below 33 degrees Celsius, or lower, local immunity is weakened. In the years since 2020, many people have forgotten the dangers of new coronavirus pneumonia, their behaviors relax their vigilance and prevent epidemics, their defenses are insufficient, the specific and non-specific immunity inside the human body has declined, and the parasitic in the wild breastfeeds The viruses in the bodies of animals have accumulated many viral mutations that invade humans, etc., and many factors. Cause humans to have a small pandemic or a worldwide pandemic like SARS, MERS, this new coronavirus pneumonia. If at the end of 2025 (or 2026) there is only a small epidemic that does not attract the attention and attention of the medical profession and the public, then the next major or small epidemic will occur in the winter of 2030 (or 2031). The world must try to strengthen the management of wild animals, vaccine research, prevent the occurrence of global respiratory infectious diseases, and avoid population deaths and economic losses.
(I recommend three papers related to preventing the next global pandemic, wild animals and vaccines for reference. Maybe you have already read it, then I’m sorry:
1. Science: Ecology and economics for pandemic prevention https://science.sciencemag.org/c ... ZOam9XNBarfqLSuyGsk
2. Science: Rigorous wildlife disease surveillance https://science.sciencemag.org/c ... KZYiahdba6v8yXz7mNA
3. Nature: Variant-proof vaccines — invest now for the next pandemic https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00340-4)









(大概是中国农历节气的冬至前后、相当于欧洲星座的摩羯座的起始之日前后)。

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